Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Bradley BealAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints32
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–129
- Q42.0Grayson Allen lost ball turnover (Trae Young steals)120–129
- Q45.1shot clock turnover120–129
- Q429.0Kevin Durant bad pass (Jalen Johnson steals)120–129
- Q435.0Dejounte Murray makes two point shot120–129
- Q452.2Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound120–127
- Q456.1Grayson Allen misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot120–127
- Q41:09Trae Young lost ball turnover (Kevin Durant steals)120–127
- Q41:14Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound120–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:02Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 86 – 86 ATL · PHX 46% → 57% +11PHX 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q33:01Keita Bates-Diop makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 92 – 89 ATL · PHX 56% → 67% +11PHX 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q336.1Wesley Matthews makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)PHX 95 – 98 ATL · ATL 44% → 56% +12ATL 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q47:05Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)PHX 106 – 114 ATL · ATL 72% → 84% +12ATL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- Q43:17Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 118 – 123 ATL · PHX 6% → 18% +11PHX 6% → 18%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5.5
- PHX 71%
- Fair odds
- PHX -158
- ATL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 123.2 – 119.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +4 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +154 Elo | PHX 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −2.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 115.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 103.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 10–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.