Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints26
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–138
- Q414.2Maxwell Lewis makes driving layup122–138
- Q427.1Kobe Bufkin makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot120–138
- Q432.0Kobe Bufkin defensive rebound120–135
- Q435.0Dylan Windler misses 25-foot three point jumper120–135
- Q447.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2120–135
- Q447.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2120–134
- Q447.1Maxwell Lewis shooting foul120–133
- Q41:00AJ Griffin defensive rebound120–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q154.1Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)LAL 25 – 32 ATL · ATL 65% → 71% +6ATL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q210:34Trae Young makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)LAL 33 – 39 ATL · ATL 62% → 69% +7ATL 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q27:33Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)LAL 37 – 44 ATL · ATL 65% → 72% +7ATL 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q24:25Trae Young makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAL 43 – 53 ATL · ATL 72% → 79% +6ATL 72% → 79%+6 pts
- Q22:48Trae Young makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)LAL 49 – 58 ATL · ATL 70% → 77% +7ATL 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 51%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- LAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 122.4 – 124.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | −11 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 120.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −3.124th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 115.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 118.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–16 | Road vs home | 9–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.