Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints23
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Fred VanVleetAssists14
- Jalen GreenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–135
- Q46.2Max Christie makes 27-foot three pointer119–135
- Q423.0Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2116–135
- Q423.0Nate Hinton enters the game for Alperen Sengun116–134
- Q423.0Jermaine Samuels Jr. enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.116–134
- Q423.0Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2116–134
- Q423.0Jalen Hood-Schifino shooting foul116–133
- Q425.0Amen Thompson defensive rebound116–133
- Q428.0Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Christian Wood 's 2-foot layup116–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:33Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 15 – 20 HOU · LAL 36% → 42% +6LAL 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q15:35Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 20 – 22 HOU · LAL 42% → 49% +7LAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q14:50D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 25 – 24 HOU · LAL 49% → 55% +7LAL 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12:19Cam Whitmore makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAL 29 – 33 HOU · HOU 49% → 56% +7HOU 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q124.0Cam Whitmore makes 28-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)LAL 31 – 40 HOU · HOU 61% → 68% +7HOU 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 53%
- Fair odds
- LAL -115
- HOU +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.4 – 117.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −11 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +18 Elo | LAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 113.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 112.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.913th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.58th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–15 | Road vs home | 16–812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.