Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints32
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–141
- Q46.0shot clock turnover132–141
- Q427.0Anthony Davis defensive rebound132–141
- Q430.1Alex Caruso misses 26-foot three point jumper132–141
- Q441.0Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2132–141
- Q441.0Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Patrick Williams132–140
- Q441.0Lakers offensive team rebound132–140
- Q441.0Anthony Davis misses free throw 1 of 2132–140
- Q441.0Alex Caruso personal take foul132–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:17Jarred Vanderbilt makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)CHI 35 – 34 LAL · LAL 46% → 53% +7LAL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q211:00Dalen Terry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 38 – 34 LAL · CHI 47% → 54% +7CHI 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q28:44D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)CHI 43 – 45 LAL · LAL 53% → 60% +7LAL 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q26:31LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)CHI 45 – 50 LAL · LAL 60% → 68% +7LAL 60% → 68%+7 pts
- Q23:08Ayo Dosunmu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 57 – 61 LAL · CHI 27% → 34% +7CHI 27% → 34%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Fair odds
- LAL -130
- CHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.3 – 114.3 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +22 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +32 Elo | LAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 115.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 115.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 16–811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.