Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints36
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds20
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints46
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Draymond GreenRebounds14
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game145–144
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime145–144
- 2OT1.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2145–144
- 2OT1.0Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for D'Angelo Russell144–144
- 2OT1.0LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2144–144
- 2OT1.0Draymond Green shooting foul143–144
- 2OT4.1Lakers Full timeout143–144
- 2OT4.1Taurean Prince enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt143–144
- 2OT4.1Cory Joseph enters the game for Dario Saric143–144
- 2OT4.1Lakers Full timeout143–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45.2Stephen Curry makes 4-foot two point shotLAL 118 – 118 GS · GS <1% → 50% +49GS <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT7.0Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)LAL 130 – 130 GS · GS <1% → 50% +50GS <1% → 50%+50 pts
- 2OT5.2Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAL 143 – 144 GS · GS <1% → 89% +88GS <1% → 89%+88 pts
- 2OT1.0LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 144 – 144 GS · LAL <1% → 50% +50LAL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- 2OT1.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 145 – 144 GS · LAL 50% → >99% +50LAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 52%
- Fair odds
- LAL -113
- GS +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 121.9 – 121.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +7 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +15 Elo | LAL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 118.010th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 118.422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.013th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–15 | Road vs home | 12–1221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.