Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jordan NworaPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jordan NworaRebounds9
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–126
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound125–126
- Q40.1Jordan Nwora misses 49-foot three point jumper125–126
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey makes dunk125–126
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey offensive rebound125–124
- Q42.0Trae Young misses two point shot125–124
- Q47.1Thaddeus Young enters the game for Gradey Dick125–124
- Q47.1Hawks Full timeout125–124
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes makes dunk (Gradey Dick assists)125–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:55Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)TOR 105 – 110 ATL · ATL 63% → 77% +14ATL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q41:11Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Nwora assists)TOR 121 – 120 ATL · TOR 25% → 62% +37TOR 25% → 62%+37 pts
- Q427.0Trae Young makes 8-foot two point shotTOR 123 – 124 ATL · ATL 30% → 71% +41ATL 30% → 71%+41 pts
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes makes dunk (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 125 – 124 ATL · TOR 15% → 85% +71TOR 15% → 85%+71 pts
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey makes dunkTOR 125 – 126 ATL · ATL <1% → >99% +99ATL <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 50%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 119.9 – 121.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −28 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Dejounte Murray −15 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 120.15th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 123.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.4 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 118.627th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 8–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−28 Elo- Dejounte Murray right hamstring−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.