Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints48
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–117
- Q414.2shot clock turnover129–117
- Q438.2Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1129–117
- Q438.2Bobby Portis shooting foul129–116
- Q438.2Derrick Jones Jr. makes driving layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)129–116
- Q448.1Bobby Portis makes free throw 2 of 2129–114
- Q448.1Bobby Portis makes free throw 1 of 2128–114
- Q448.1Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul127–114
- Q448.1Bobby Portis offensive rebound127–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:28Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIL 85 – 84 DAL · DAL 31% → 42% +11DAL 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q326.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 91 – 89 DAL · MIL 50% → 62% +12MIL 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q34.2Maxi Kleber makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIL 91 – 92 DAL · DAL 38% → 50% +12DAL 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q410:18Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)MIL 97 – 97 DAL · DAL 33% → 46% +13DAL 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q46:57Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 109 – 101 DAL · MIL 78% → 88% +10MIL 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 66%
- Fair odds
- MIL -137
- DAL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 125.9 – 123.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −26 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MIL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +116 Elo | MIL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.9 | Points scored | 118.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 118.621st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 115.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 116.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 14–1219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.