Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Josh GreenPoints18
- Richaun HolmesAssists3
- Richaun HolmesRebounds10
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–121
- Q415.0Jaden Hardy makes 20-foot step back jumpshot (Brandon Williams assists)87–121
- Q418.2Richaun Holmes offensive rebound85–121
- Q421.1Jaden Hardy misses 13-foot two point shot85–121
- Q432.1Troy Brown Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot85–121
- Q442.1Troy Brown Jr. defensive rebound85–118
- Q444.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 2 of 285–118
- Q444.1Mavericks offensive team rebound85–118
- Q444.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 1 of 285–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:31Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three pointer (Seth Curry assists)DAL 39 – 35 MIN · DAL 27% → 34% +7DAL 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q22:20Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 44 – 42 MIN · DAL 24% → 31% +7DAL 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q234.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)DAL 46 – 49 MIN · MIN 73% → 80% +7MIN 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q311:47Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Richaun Holmes assists)DAL 51 – 52 MIN · DAL 18% → 25% +6DAL 18% → 25%+6 pts
- Q38:22Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)DAL 55 – 60 MIN · MIN 76% → 83% +7MIN 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -11
- MIN 86%
- Fair odds
- MIN -412
- DAL +412 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 120.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −118 | +39 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +314 Elo | MIN 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 112.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 107.41st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +5.56th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 113.119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 107.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 17–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.