Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Cole AnthonyAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–131
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound129–131
- Q40.2Franz Wagner misses 34-foot three point shot129–131
- Q43.1Franz Wagner offensive rebound129–131
- Q43.1Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2129–131
- Q43.1Goga Bitadze enters the game for Joe Ingles129–131
- Q43.1Dereck Lively II enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.129–131
- Q43.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2129–131
- Q43.1Josh Green personal take foul128–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:05Franz Wagner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 107 – 106 DAL · ORL 36% → 52% +16ORL 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q46:40Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)ORL 107 – 109 DAL · DAL 48% → 64% +16DAL 48% → 64%+16 pts
- Q44:59Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 113 – 112 DAL · ORL 35% → 54% +19ORL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q44:43Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshotORL 113 – 115 DAL · DAL 46% → 66% +19DAL 46% → 66%+19 pts
- Q412.0Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot driving dunkORL 126 – 127 DAL · ORL <1% → 21% +20ORL <1% → 21%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 52%
- Fair odds
- DAL -142
- ORL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 113.2 – 115.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +3 | ORL: Usual rotation · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +17 Elo | DAL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 118.77th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 118.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 13–1220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.