Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–101
- Q43.1Kenrich Williams makes driving dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)107–101
- Q47.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2107–99
- Q47.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2106–99
- Q47.2Aaron Wiggins personal take foul105–99
- Q49.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2105–99
- Q49.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2105–98
- Q49.1Anthony Edwards personal foul105–97
- Q415.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 2 of 2105–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointerMIN 89 – 85 OKC · MIN 52% → 68% +17MIN 52% → 68%+17 pts
- Q46:01Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIN 89 – 88 OKC · OKC 31% → 48% +17OKC 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:13Naz Reid makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 92 – 90 OKC · MIN 40% → 59% +19MIN 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q44:50Jalen Williams makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jaylin Williams assists)MIN 92 – 93 OKC · OKC 40% → 60% +19OKC 40% → 60%+19 pts
- Q42:32Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 99 – 97 OKC · MIN 39% → 65% +27MIN 39% → 65%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 61%
- Fair odds
- OKC -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 110.9 – 114.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +70 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +77 Elo | OKC 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 113.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +8.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 118.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 110.57th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 17–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.