Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints14
- Brandon IngramAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–83
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–83
- Q46.0shot clock turnover107–83
- Q429.1Jose Alvarado bad pass (Jaylin Williams steals)107–83
- Q436.1Aaron Wiggins lost ball turnover (E.J. Liddell steals)107–83
- Q41:00Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes two point shot107–83
- Q41:05Vasilije Micic lost ball turnover (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl steals)107–81
- Q41:26Jaylin Williams defensive rebound107–81
- Q41:28Jose Alvarado misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–81
- Q41:38Jaylin Williams loose ball foul107–81
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:39Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)OKC 16 – 17 NO · NO 44% → 50% +7NO 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q127.1Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)OKC 22 – 24 NO · NO 46% → 53% +7NO 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:04Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)OKC 31 – 28 NO · OKC 52% → 59% +7OKC 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q27:00Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 36 – 30 NO · OKC 59% → 67% +7OKC 59% → 67%+7 pts
- Q35:54CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)OKC 58 – 52 NO · NO 21% → 29% +8NO 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- OKC 52%
- Fair odds
- OKC -109
- NO +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.9 – 118.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +87 | +61 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +12 Elo | OKC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.9 | Points scored | 117.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.3 | Margin | +5.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 116.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.515th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 14–916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+61 Elo- Zion Williamson left foot−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.