Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Josh GiddeyAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints22
- Jalen DurenAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–120
- Q422.2Kevin Knox II enters the game for Bojan Bogdanovic104–120
- Q422.2Mike Muscala enters the game for Alec Burks104–120
- Q422.2Ausar Thompson enters the game for Jalen Duren104–120
- Q422.2Aaron Wiggins out of bounds bad pass turnover104–120
- Q435.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound104–120
- Q438.0Jaden Ivey misses 18-foot pullup jump shot104–120
- Q41:01Aaron Wiggins makes two point shot104–120
- Q41:05Marcus Sasser lost ball turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)102–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:43Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 64 – 70 DET · OKC 50% → 59% +9OKC 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q311:02Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 67 – 72 DET · OKC 52% → 61% +9OKC 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q34:03Mike Muscala makes 26-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)OKC 84 – 90 DET · DET 39% → 50% +11DET 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q32:40Jaden Ivey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)OKC 86 – 95 DET · DET 51% → 63% +11DET 51% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:30Monte Morris makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)OKC 86 – 100 DET · DET 72% → 81% +9DET 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14.5
- OKC 91%
- Fair odds
- OKC -489
- DET +489 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 125.4 – 113.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1312 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +86 | −26 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +407 Elo | OKC 91.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.6 | Points scored | 112.324th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.7 | Margin | −10.329th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 118.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 3–2130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−26 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.