New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints26
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–141
- Q422.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 14-foot pullup jump shot117–141
- Q428.1Robin Lopez kicked ball violation115–141
- Q432.1E.J. Liddell defensive rebound115–141
- Q435.1Chris Livingston misses two point shot115–141
- Q436.0Chris Livingston defensive rebound115–141
- Q438.1Naji Marshall misses two point shot115–141
- Q450.1MarJon Beauchamp makes 20-foot two point shot115–141
- Q41:05Naji Marshall makes 16-foot pullup jump shot115–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:08Larry Nance Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 35 – 38 MIL · NO 33% → 39% +7NO 33% → 39%+7 pts
- Q211:00Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)NO 35 – 41 MIL · MIL 61% → 67% +7MIL 61% → 67%+7 pts
- Q29:37Jordan Hawkins makes 23-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)NO 40 – 43 MIL · NO 32% → 39% +7NO 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q24:32Herbert Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 57 – 63 MIL · NO 25% → 31% +7NO 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q24:13Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)NO 57 – 66 MIL · MIL 69% → 75% +7MIL 69% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- NO +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 120.0 – 121.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +65 | +35 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 124.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 120.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +3.910th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 118.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 114.919th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 20–55th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.