Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Damian LillardAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–113
- Q47.1Giannis Antetokounmpo traveling107–113
- Q411.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2107–113
- Q411.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2107–112
- Q411.1Khris Middleton personal take foul107–111
- Q418.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2107–111
- Q418.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2106–111
- Q418.1Peyton Watson enters the game for Aaron Gordon105–111
- Q418.1Aaron Gordon shooting foul105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:12Cameron Payne makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 82 – 84 DEN · MIL 27% → 40% +12MIL 27% → 40%+12 pts
- Q49:39Bobby Portis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)MIL 85 – 86 DEN · MIL 31% → 44% +13MIL 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q48:58Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)MIL 88 – 86 DEN · MIL 44% → 58% +14MIL 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q45:02Brook Lopez makes 28-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 97 – 98 DEN · MIL 25% → 43% +17MIL 25% → 43%+17 pts
- Q41:59Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)MIL 105 – 108 DEN · MIL 6% → 22% +16MIL 6% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 49%
- Fair odds
- DEN -115
- MIL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.6 – 119.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +67 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +4 Elo | MIL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.4 | Points scored | 115.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 111.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 116.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 18–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.