Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul ReedPoints30
- Patrick BeverleyAssists11
- Paul ReedRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–111
- Q44.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound105–111
- Q412.0Jamal Murray blocks Marcus Morris Sr.'s three point jumper105–111
- Q416.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2105–111
- Q416.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2105–110
- Q416.1Nicolas Batum personal take foul105–109
- Q424.0Paul Reed makes alley oop layup (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)105–109
- Q433.0Nicolas Batum enters the game for Danuel House Jr.103–109
- Q433.076ers Full timeout103–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:26Furkan Korkmaz makes 25-foot three point jumperPHI 84 – 84 DEN · PHI 24% → 34% +10PHI 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q411:43Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)PHI 88 – 89 DEN · DEN 57% → 69% +12DEN 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q44:17Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shotPHI 96 – 99 DEN · DEN 66% → 77% +12DEN 66% → 77%+12 pts
- Q41:38Paul Reed makes 25-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 101 – 104 DEN · PHI 3% → 16% +13PHI 3% → 16%+13 pts
- Q41:17Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)PHI 101 – 107 DEN · DEN 86% → 98% +12DEN 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Fair odds
- DEN -358
- PHI +358 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.0 – 118.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −131 | +67 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −124 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +208 Elo | DEN 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 115.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.713th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.528th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 17–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−131 Elo- Joel Embiid left knee soreness−124 Elo
Nuggets
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.