Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints27
- Khris MiddletonAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints24
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0Malcolm Brogdon defensive rebound116–119
- Q42.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q42.1Bobby Portis enters the game for Malik Beasley116–119
- Q42.1Jabari Walker enters the game for Matisse Thybulle116–119
- Q42.1Bucks offensive team rebound116–119
- Q42.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2116–119
- Q42.1Jerami Grant personal take foul116–119
- Q44.1Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:58Brook Lopez makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 112 – 113 POR · MIL 23% → 46% +23MIL 23% → 46%+23 pts
- Q42:21Jerami Grant makes 19-foot two point shotMIL 112 – 115 POR · POR 56% → 73% +17POR 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q41:13Damian Lillard makes 1-foot driving dunkMIL 114 – 115 POR · MIL 18% → 40% +22MIL 18% → 40%+22 pts
- Q437.2Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 116 – 115 POR · MIL 34% → 69% +35MIL 34% → 69%+35 pts
- Q417.1Anfernee Simons makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 116 – 117 POR · POR 24% → 74% +50POR 24% → 74%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6.5
- MIL 74%
- Fair odds
- MIL -199
- POR +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.2 – 116.0 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −16 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +185 Elo | MIL 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.0 | Points scored | 108.329th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 116.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −8.426th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 106.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.7 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 8–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.