Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points25
- Patrick BeverleyAssists5
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds6
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints27
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists9
- Jabari WalkerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–130
- Q419.0Toumani Camara defensive rebound104–130
- Q423.1Scoot Henderson blocks Terquavion Smith 's 24-foot three point jumper104–130
- Q431.0Mo Bamba defensive rebound104–130
- Q435.0Mo Bamba blocks Rayan Rupert 's 1-foot driving layup104–130
- Q442.1Jaden Springer vs. Kris Murray (Kris Murray gains possession)104–130
- Q444.1Jaden Springer lost ball turnover (Rayan Rupert steals)104–130
- Q452.0Mo Bamba defensive rebound103–130
- Q453.1Toumani Camara misses 23-foot three point jumper103–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:17Duop Reath makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHI 34 – 31 POR · POR 32% → 39% +7POR 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q23:53Marcus Morris Sr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 49 – 43 POR · PHI 61% → 69% +8PHI 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q21:29Malcolm Brogdon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHI 53 – 52 POR · POR 36% → 44% +8POR 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q310:36Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)PHI 59 – 64 POR · POR 53% → 62% +9POR 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q39:21Malcolm Brogdon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)PHI 63 – 69 POR · POR 56% → 65% +9POR 56% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3.5
- PHI 64%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- POR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.7 – 112.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −89 | −31 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +102 Elo | PHI 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 107.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 117.018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.5 | Margin | −9.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 106.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 115.120th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 7–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.