Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints20
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- DeMar DeRozanRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints24
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–96
- Q41.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound104–96
- Q44.1Jerami Grant misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot104–96
- Q410.0Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2104–96
- Q410.0Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2103–96
- Q410.0Malcolm Brogdon personal foul102–96
- Q410.0Matisse Thybulle bad pass (Coby White steals)102–96
- Q411.1Anfernee Simons offensive rebound102–96
- Q415.1Alex Caruso blocks Anfernee Simons 's 33-foot three point pullup jump shot102–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:22Jevon Carter makes 22-foot three pointer (Coby White assists)CHI 72 – 70 POR · CHI 53% → 64% +12CHI 53% → 64%+12 pts
- Q31:07Malcolm Brogdon makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)CHI 72 – 73 POR · POR 36% → 48% +12POR 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q44:37Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 92 – 89 POR · POR 13% → 27% +14POR 13% → 27%+14 pts
- Q44:12DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three pointerCHI 95 – 89 POR · CHI 73% → 87% +14CHI 73% → 87%+14 pts
- Q41:37Matisse Thybulle makes 3-foot two point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)CHI 97 – 94 POR · POR 7% → 18% +11POR 7% → 18%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- CHI 69%
- Fair odds
- CHI -164
- POR +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.9 – 109.2 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −28 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +140 Elo | CHI 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 108.129th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.6 | Margin | −9.228th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 106.330th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 115.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–15 | Road vs home | 7–1225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.