Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists13
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds7
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints21
- Kelly OlynykAssists6
- Keyonte GeorgeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–123
- Q43.0Jazz defensive team rebound108–123
- Q43.0Chris Livingston misses driving floating jump shot108–123
- Q413.1Keyonte George out of bounds lost ball turnover108–123
- Q419.1Keyonte George defensive rebound108–123
- Q421.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2108–123
- Q421.0Bucks offensive team rebound108–123
- Q421.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2108–123
- Q421.0Walker Kessler shooting foul108–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:44Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 102 – 99 UTAH · MIL 47% → 62% +15MIL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q46:26Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)MIL 102 – 104 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 64% +17UTAH 47% → 64%+17 pts
- Q45:37Walker Kessler makes alley oop layup (Jordan Clarkson assists)MIL 105 – 106 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 59% +12UTAH 46% → 59%+12 pts
- Q43:31Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 108 – 112 UTAH · MIL 8% → 21% +12MIL 8% → 21%+12 pts
- Q43:15Keyonte George makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 108 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 80% → 93% +12UTAH 80% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- UTAH 53%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -134
- MIL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 124.3 – 126.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | +47 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +19 Elo | UTAH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.0 | Points scored | 117.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 120.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 114.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 15–710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.