Utah Jazz at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds11
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints33
- Josh HartAssists10
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–118
- Q49.1Ryan Arcidiacono out of bounds bad pass turnover103–118
- Q429.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2103–118
- Q429.1Malachi Flynn enters the game for Jalen Brunson102–118
- Q429.1Taj Gibson enters the game for Precious Achiuwa102–118
- Q429.1Miles McBride enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo102–118
- Q429.1Ryan Arcidiacono enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein102–118
- Q429.1Jericho Sims enters the game for Josh Hart102–118
- Q429.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2102–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:55Simone Fontecchio makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 18 – 13 NY · UTAH 48% → 55% +7UTAH 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q15:46Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)UTAH 18 – 16 NY · NY 45% → 52% +7NY 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q27:33Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)UTAH 34 – 39 NY · NY 61% → 68% +7NY 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q24:01Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 42 – 45 NY · UTAH 29% → 37% +7UTAH 29% → 37%+7 pts
- Q39:21Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 60 – 61 NY · UTAH 33% → 42% +9UTAH 33% → 42%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Fair odds
- NY -132
- UTAH +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.1 – 118.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +57 | +12 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +127 Elo | NY 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 115.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 109.42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 110.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 309–18 | Road vs home | 16–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.