New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Josh HartRebounds12
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints29
- Cody MartinAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–92
- Q40.0shot clock turnover113–92
- Q425.0Malachi Flynn makes free throw 2 of 2113–92
- Q425.0Malachi Flynn makes free throw 1 of 2112–92
- Q425.0James Bouknight shooting foul111–92
- Q429.1Malachi Flynn defensive rebound111–92
- Q430.1Charlie Brown Jr. blocks Bryce McGowens's driving layup111–92
- Q449.0Jericho Sims turnover111–92
- Q449.0Jericho Sims offensive charge111–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:37Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)NY 36 – 37 CHA · CHA 25% → 32% +7CHA 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:27Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 41 – 41 CHA · NY 62% → 70% +8NY 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q21:19Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 46 – 41 CHA · NY 74% → 81% +6NY 74% → 81%+6 pts
- Q311:15Cody Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)NY 48 – 46 CHA · CHA 19% → 26% +7CHA 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q310:54Precious Achiuwa makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 51 – 46 CHA · NY 74% → 81% +7NY 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -13
- NY 89%
- Fair odds
- NY -313
- CHA +313 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.4 – 107.8 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1330 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −83 | NY: Missing OG Anunoby −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +364 Elo | NY 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 108.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 120.525th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 108.428th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 119.930th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 5–1627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+8 Elo- OG Anunoby right elbow−15 Elo
Hornets
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.