Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints51
- Tobias HarrisAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds10
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints28
- Jordan ClarksonAssists10
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–124
- Q42.0Patrick Beverley defensive rebound127–124
- Q42.0Jordan Clarkson misses free throw 2 of 2127–124
- Q42.0Mo Bamba enters the game for Jaden Springer127–124
- Q42.0Omer Yurtseven enters the game for John Collins127–124
- Q42.0Walker Kessler enters the game for Simone Fontecchio127–124
- Q42.0Jazz offensive team rebound127–124
- Q42.0Jordan Clarkson misses free throw 1 of 2127–124
- Q42.0Tyrese Maxey personal take foul127–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:49Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Springer assists)PHI 112 – 109 UTAH · PHI 44% → 61% +18PHI 44% → 61%+18 pts
- Q43:12Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)PHI 117 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 55% +23UTAH 31% → 55%+23 pts
- Q42:32Collin Sexton makes 24-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)PHI 117 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 54% → 78% +24UTAH 54% → 78%+24 pts
- Q41:40Tyrese Maxey makes 33-foot three pointerPHI 120 – 120 UTAH · PHI 18% → 47% +29PHI 18% → 47%+29 pts
- Q440.1Patrick Beverley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 123 – 120 UTAH · PHI 48% → 90% +42PHI 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -5
- UTAH 68%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -207
- PHI +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 117.0 – 122.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +46 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +134 Elo | UTAH 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 117.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 119.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.3 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 114.015th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 116.324th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 15–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.