Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints26
- Furkan KorkmazAssists3
- Tobias HarrisRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints37
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Stephen CurryRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–119
- Q420.1Draymond Green defensive rebound107–119
- Q422.2Kelly Oubre Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper107–119
- Q431.1Jonathan Kuminga makes 3-foot dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)107–119
- Q439.1Jonathan Kuminga offensive rebound107–117
- Q441.1Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point jumper107–117
- Q41:00Ricky Council IV makes driving layup (Furkan Korkmaz assists)107–117
- Q41:13Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2105–117
- Q41:13Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2105–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:32Joel Embiid makes 29-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 53 – 52 GS · PHI 41% → 50% +9PHI 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q311:19Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)PHI 53 – 55 GS · GS 50% → 59% +9GS 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:26Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPHI 55 – 60 GS · GS 59% → 68% +9GS 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q410:01Furkan Korkmaz makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Springer assists)PHI 85 – 91 GS · PHI 14% → 23% +9PHI 14% → 23%+9 pts
- Q47:31Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)PHI 90 – 98 GS · GS 76% → 86% +11GS 76% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 120.1 – 121.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | +15 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +32 Elo | GS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 118.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 119.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.