Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints30
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists8
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q44.0Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound118–110
- Q44.0GG Jackson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot118–110
- Q47.0Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2118–110
- Q47.0Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2117–110
- Q47.0Scotty Pippen Jr. personal foul116–110
- Q411.1Scotty Pippen Jr. makes layup116–110
- Q415.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2116–108
- Q415.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:05Santi Aldama makes 28-foot three point jumperCHI 82 – 84 MEM · MEM 41% → 58% +17MEM 41% → 58%+17 pts
- Q410:52Coby White makes 9-foot pullup jump shotCHI 85 – 84 MEM · CHI 42% → 55% +13CHI 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q410:31GG Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)CHI 85 – 87 MEM · MEM 45% → 58% +13MEM 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q47:35Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 92 – 93 MEM · CHI 31% → 45% +15CHI 31% → 45%+15 pts
- Q46:44Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 95 – 95 MEM · CHI 34% → 51% +16CHI 34% → 51%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 53%
- Fair odds
- CHI -107
- MEM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 109.2 – 108.7 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +3 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −1 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +21 Elo | CHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 107.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 113.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 105.830th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 111.99th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 5–1826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+3 Elo- Derrick Rose injury/illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.