Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints29
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists14
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Jacob GilyardAssists5
- John KoncharRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–101
- Q412.1Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound121–101
- Q415.1Matt Hurt misses 24-foot three point jumper121–101
- Q427.1Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2121–101
- Q427.1Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2120–101
- Q427.1GG Jackson shooting foul119–101
- Q439.1David Roddy out of bounds bad pass turnover119–101
- Q456.1Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot driving dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)119–101
- Q41:04David Roddy makes finger roll layup117–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:32John Konchar makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)GS 34 – 32 MEM · MEM 38% → 45% +7MEM 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q27:44Jacob Gilyard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)GS 34 – 35 MEM · MEM 45% → 53% +8MEM 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:47Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 47 – 39 MEM · GS 63% → 70% +7GS 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q35:46Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)GS 68 – 62 MEM · MEM 22% → 31% +8MEM 22% → 31%+8 pts
- Q410:54Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three pointer (Derrick Rose assists)GS 85 – 78 MEM · MEM 14% → 22% +9MEM 14% → 22%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MEM 49%
- Fair odds
- MEM -101
- GS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.9 – 115.0 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | −5 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +5 Elo | GS 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 107.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 106.030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.813th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 5–1726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–1 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.