Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints25
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Max StrusRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Jacob GilyardAssists6
- Santi AldamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–101
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound108–101
- Q47.0Vince Williams Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper108–101
- Q414.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2108–101
- Q414.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Sam Merrill107–101
- Q414.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound107–101
- Q414.1Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2107–101
- Q414.1John Konchar personal take foul107–101
- Q418.0Sam Merrill enters the game for Isaac Okoro107–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:04Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three pointer (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 94 – 89 MEM · CLE 66% → 80% +14CLE 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q43:40Max Strus makes driving floating jump shot (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 98 – 96 MEM · CLE 53% → 68% +14CLE 53% → 68%+14 pts
- Q42:42Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot step back jumpshotCLE 101 – 97 MEM · CLE 61% → 83% +21CLE 61% → 83%+21 pts
- Q42:12Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot (Santi Aldama assists)CLE 101 – 99 MEM · MEM 15% → 29% +14MEM 15% → 29%+14 pts
- Q41:47Caris LeVert makes 1-foot driving dunk (Max Strus assists)CLE 103 – 99 MEM · CLE 73% → 87% +15CLE 73% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 69%
- Fair odds
- CLE -162
- MEM +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.1 – 105.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +84 | −10 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +140 Elo | CLE 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 107.530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 112.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 106.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.813th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 5–1626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.