Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Danilo GallinariPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints45
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–128
- Q413.0Bojan Bogdanovic bad pass (Max Strus steals)121–128
- Q424.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2121–128
- Q424.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2121–127
- Q424.0Bojan Bogdanovic personal take foul121–126
- Q424.2Cavaliers Full timeout121–126
- Q424.2Cade Cunningham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)121–126
- Q428.0Pistons Full timeout118–126
- Q428.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2118–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:52Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DET 111 – 109 CLE · CLE 34% → 52% +17CLE 34% → 52%+17 pts
- Q43:59Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 116 – 113 CLE · DET 39% → 60% +21DET 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q43:43Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerDET 116 – 116 CLE · CLE 39% → 61% +22CLE 39% → 61%+22 pts
- Q43:18Jalen Duren makes layup (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 118 – 116 CLE · DET 40% → 56% +16DET 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q42:48Isaac Okoro makes two point shotDET 118 – 118 CLE · CLE 42% → 59% +17CLE 42% → 59%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -13.5
- CLE 90%
- Fair odds
- CLE -506
- DET +506 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.6 – 119.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1350 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +85 | DET: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +378 Elo | CLE 89.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 82.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 114.119th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.7 | Margin | +4.37th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 302–19 | Road vs home | 15–813th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.