Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Scotty Pippen Jr.Points19
- Jacob GilyardAssists6
- Tosan EvbuomwanRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints34
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–131
- Q40.1shot clock turnover91–131
- Q423.0Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound91–131
- Q427.1Trey Jemison misses 9-foot two point shot91–131
- Q435.1Lamar Stevens makes driving layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)91–131
- Q444.1Scotty Pippen Jr. makes free throw 2 of 291–129
- Q444.1Scotty Pippen Jr. makes free throw 1 of 290–129
- Q444.1Jordan Walsh personal foul89–129
- Q459.2Svi Mykhailiuk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)89–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:49Tosan Evbuomwan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Matt Hurt assists)MEM 30 – 35 BOS · MEM 15% → 20% +5MEM 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q28:26Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MEM 30 – 38 BOS · BOS 80% → 85% +5BOS 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q27:41Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)MEM 35 – 38 BOS · MEM 18% → 24% +6MEM 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q26:29Jacob Gilyard makes 26-foot three pointer (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 38 – 40 BOS · MEM 20% → 26% +6MEM 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q24:12Derrick White makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)MEM 44 – 51 BOS · BOS 78% → 83% +6BOS 78% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 80%
- Fair odds
- BOS -285
- MEM +285 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 106.0 – 114.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +37 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −1 · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +243 Elo | BOS 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 120.15th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +9.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 118.91st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 110.04th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 22–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+1 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring soreness−1 Elo
Celtics
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.