Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints32
- D'Angelo RussellAssists14
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints23
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–105
- Q426.1Dylan Windler defensive rebound114–105
- Q428.0Oshae Brissett misses 23-foot three point jumper114–105
- Q429.1Oshae Brissett offensive rebound114–105
- Q431.0Sam Hauser misses 27-foot three point shot114–105
- Q434.1Dalano Banton defensive rebound114–105
- Q436.1Maxwell Lewis misses driving layup114–105
- Q446.1Maxwell Lewis enters the game for Rui Hachimura114–105
- Q446.1Dylan Windler enters the game for Taurean Prince114–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:01Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 77 – 71 BOS · BOS 40% → 51% +11BOS 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q31:26Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)LAL 83 – 76 BOS · BOS 32% → 43% +11BOS 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q31:00Austin Reaves makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 86 – 76 BOS · LAL 58% → 69% +11LAL 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q410:37Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)LAL 92 – 85 BOS · BOS 26% → 37% +12BOS 26% → 37%+12 pts
- Q49:54Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 97 – 85 BOS · LAL 72% → 83% +10LAL 72% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13
- BOS 89%
- Fair odds
- BOS -493
- LAL +493 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.1 – 125.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −102 | +65 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +365 Elo | BOS 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 111.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +9.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 119.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.9 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–17 | Road vs home | 22–21st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.