New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Brandon IngramRebounds7
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–118
- Q43.0CJ McCollum lost ball turnover (Jayson Tatum steals)112–118
- Q45.2Derrick White personal foul112–118
- Q49.1Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Herbert Jones112–118
- Q49.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2112–118
- Q49.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2112–117
- Q49.1Herbert Jones personal take foul112–116
- Q410.1Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three pointer112–116
- Q416.2CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:22Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)NO 94 – 94 BOS · BOS 38% → 55% +17BOS 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q45:25Brandon Ingram makes 10-foot two point shotNO 98 – 96 BOS · NO 45% → 57% +12NO 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q45:05Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerNO 98 – 99 BOS · BOS 42% → 61% +19BOS 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q43:28Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 101 – 104 BOS · NO 10% → 25% +14NO 10% → 25%+14 pts
- Q43:05Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)NO 101 – 107 BOS · BOS 76% → 91% +15BOS 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -179
- NO +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.1 – 117.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | +33 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +134 Elo | BOS 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 120.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 110.74th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +9.61st of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 119.01st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 20–21st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.