Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Aaron NesmithRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–129
- Q43.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis124–129
- Q43.0Celtics Full timeout124–129
- Q43.0Celtics defensive team rebound124–129
- Q45.1Obi Toppin misses 25-foot three point jumper124–129
- Q411.1Pacers offensive team rebound124–129
- Q411.1Jayson Tatum blocks Aaron Nesmith 's 4-foot driving layup124–129
- Q411.1Obi Toppin vs. Jayson Tatum (Pascal Siakam gains possession)124–129
- Q411.1Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Payton Pritchard124–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:58Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)IND 94 – 96 BOS · BOS 52% → 62% +11BOS 52% → 62%+11 pts
- Q32:22Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)IND 96 – 101 BOS · BOS 62% → 73% +10BOS 62% → 73%+10 pts
- Q411:01Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 106 – 108 BOS · IND 26% → 37% +12IND 26% → 37%+12 pts
- Q410:16Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotIND 106 – 113 BOS · BOS 71% → 81% +10BOS 71% → 81%+10 pts
- Q41:04Aaron Nesmith makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 124 – 127 BOS · IND 4% → 14% +10IND 4% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -143
- IND +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.5 – 122.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +72 | +73 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +99 Elo | BOS 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.5 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 110.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +9.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 119.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 21–21st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.