Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints41
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q47.1Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2123–115
- Q47.1Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2122–115
- Q47.1Coby White personal take foul121–115
- Q48.0Kings defensive team rebound121–115
- Q410.0Nikola Vucevic misses 26-foot three point jumper121–115
- Q417.0Alex Caruso defensive rebound121–115
- Q419.0Malik Monk misses free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q419.0Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2121–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30De'Aaron Fox makes 30-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 113 – 106 CHI · SAC 77% → 90% +14SAC 77% → 90%+14 pts
- Q42:05Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three pointer (Ayo Dosunmu assists)SAC 115 – 111 CHI · CHI 4% → 17% +12CHI 4% → 17%+12 pts
- Q41:31Nikola Vucevic makes tip shotSAC 116 – 113 CHI · CHI 8% → 20% +12CHI 8% → 20%+12 pts
- Q41:10Harrison Barnes makes 13-foot pullup jump shotSAC 118 – 113 CHI · SAC 84% → 95% +11SAC 84% → 95%+11 pts
- Q458.2DeMar DeRozan makes 9-foot two point shotSAC 118 – 115 CHI · CHI 4% → 14% +11CHI 4% → 14%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- CHI 58%
- Fair odds
- CHI -133
- SAC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.7 – 115.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +32 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +56 Elo | CHI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 111.026th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 14–1117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.