Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints26
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints31
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–122
- Q48.0Harrison Barnes defensive rebound133–122
- Q412.1Buddy Hield misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot133–122
- Q420.1Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2133–122
- Q420.1Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2132–122
- Q420.1Buddy Hield personal take foul131–122
- Q425.1Pascal Siakam makes 2-foot two point shot (Buddy Hield assists)131–122
- Q438.2De'Aaron Fox makes layup131–120
- Q442.0Bennedict Mathurin lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)129–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:05Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three pointer (Bennedict Mathurin assists)SAC 32 – 37 IND · IND 54% → 61% +7IND 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q29:34Trey Lyles makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 46 – 47 IND · SAC 41% → 48% +7SAC 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q29:08Trey Lyles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 49 – 47 IND · SAC 48% → 56% +7SAC 48% → 56%+7 pts
- Q23:23Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot three pointerSAC 64 – 56 IND · SAC 64% → 71% +7SAC 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q36:35Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 81 – 70 IND · SAC 75% → 82% +7SAC 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- SAC 44%
- Fair odds
- SAC -103
- IND +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.6 – 122.4 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +34 | +30 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Jalen Smith −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +45 Elo | IND 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 124.11st of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 122.628th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 117.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 104.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 16–914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+30 Elo- Jalen Smith back spasms−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.