Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jalen SmithPoints20
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints40
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–109
- Q42.0Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three pointer105–109
- Q46.0Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2102–109
- Q46.0Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2102–108
- Q46.0Buddy Hield personal foul102–107
- Q46.2Jalen Smith makes driving dunk102–107
- Q414.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2100–107
- Q414.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2100–106
- Q414.1Pascal Siakam personal take foul100–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:45Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)IND 91 – 91 NY · NY 37% → 53% +16NY 37% → 53%+16 pts
- Q42:15Pascal Siakam makes 16-foot step back jumpshotIND 98 – 99 NY · IND 22% → 39% +17IND 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q42:00Jalen Smith makes 1-foot dunkIND 100 – 99 NY · IND 38% → 58% +20IND 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q41:46Jalen Brunson makes 1-foot driving floating jump shotIND 100 – 101 NY · NY 41% → 62% +21NY 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q41:35Donte DiVincenzo makes 19-foot step back jumpshotIND 100 – 103 NY · NY 63% → 82% +19NY 63% → 82%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Fair odds
- NY -138
- IND +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.8 – 119.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +33 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +113 Elo | NY 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.5 | Points scored | 115.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +6.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 116.58th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 99.027th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 17–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.