Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints35
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints30
- Cody MartinAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q47.2Cody Martin makes 26-foot three pointer117–110
- Q413.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2117–107
- Q413.1Bulls offensive team rebound116–107
- Q413.1Coby White misses free throw 1 of 2116–107
- Q413.1P.J. Washington personal foul116–107
- Q421.0Brandon Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover116–107
- Q425.0Coby White out of bounds bad pass turnover116–107
- Q429.0Bulls defensive team rebound116–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:32Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)CHI 71 – 71 CHA · CHA 31% → 40% +9CHA 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q33:36Terry Taylor makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 81 – 76 CHA · CHI 66% → 75% +9CHI 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q32:58Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point shot (Frank Ntilikina assists)CHI 81 – 81 CHA · CHA 31% → 41% +10CHA 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q31:03Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)CHI 83 – 84 CHA · CHA 34% → 46% +12CHA 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q338.1Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three pointer (Andre Drummond assists)CHI 86 – 84 CHA · CHI 54% → 66% +12CHI 54% → 66%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6.5
- CHI 75%
- Fair odds
- CHI -188
- CHA +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.8 – 109.0 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1327 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | −81 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +187 Elo | CHI 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 108.628th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.6 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 108.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 120.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 5–1727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.