Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points24
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Bruce BrownRebounds7
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints25
- Coby WhiteAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–107
- Q416.1Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound118–107
- Q419.1DeMar DeRozan misses 22-foot three point jumper118–107
- Q428.2Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2118–107
- Q428.2Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2117–107
- Q428.2DeMar DeRozan shooting foul116–107
- Q432.1Alex Caruso bad pass (Dennis Schroder steals)116–107
- Q444.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound116–107
- Q446.1Dennis Schroder misses free throw 2 of 2116–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:46Jordan Nwora makes 26-foot step back jumpshotTOR 82 – 82 CHI · TOR 28% → 38% +10TOR 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q32:19Jordan Nwora makes 26-foot three point jumper (Thaddeus Young assists)TOR 86 – 83 CHI · TOR 39% → 50% +11TOR 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q410:01Bruce Brown makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 97 – 91 CHI · TOR 54% → 67% +13TOR 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q48:43Jalen McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 102 – 94 CHI · TOR 65% → 77% +12TOR 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q46:04Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 109 – 100 CHI · TOR 75% → 87% +12TOR 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5.5
- CHI 71%
- Fair odds
- CHI -236
- TOR +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.6 – 117.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | +49 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +159 Elo | CHI 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 110.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–17 | Road vs home | 14–1016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.