Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Vince Williams Jr.Points19
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists5
- Trey Jemison IIIRebounds6
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–123
- Q41.0Trey Jemison bad pass (Miles McBride steals)113–123
- Q42.1Trey Jemison offensive rebound113–123
- Q44.0GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot113–123
- Q410.1Donte DiVincenzo out of bounds lost ball turnover113–123
- Q412.0Trey Jemison bad pass (Isaiah Hartenstein steals)113–123
- Q413.1Trey Jemison offensive rebound113–123
- Q416.0Jacob Gilyard misses 26-foot three point jumper113–123
- Q419.1Grizzlies Full timeout113–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MEM 0 – 7 NY · NY 82% → 86% +4NY 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q15:26Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMEM 13 – 19 NY · MEM 12% → 16% +4MEM 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q113.1GG Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)MEM 24 – 31 NY · MEM 11% → 15% +4MEM 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q42:05David Roddy makes 25-foot three point shot (Jacob Gilyard assists)MEM 109 – 113 NY · MEM 3% → 12% +10MEM 3% → 12%+10 pts
- Q41:44Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 109 – 116 NY · NY 89% → 98% +9NY 89% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 85%
- Fair odds
- NY -329
- MEM +329 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 101.9 – 111.0 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | +34 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +299 Elo | NY 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 115.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.1 | Margin | +5.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 116.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 110.46th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 18–67th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.