Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints24
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds18
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–105
- Q42.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2113–105
- Q42.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2112–105
- Q42.1Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo111–105
- Q42.1Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul111–105
- Q45.0Jalen Brunson makes driving layup111–105
- Q410.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2111–103
- Q410.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2110–103
- Q410.1Miles McBride personal take foul109–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:37Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)LAL 89 – 89 NY · NY 42% → 56% +14NY 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q48:33Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 92 – 91 NY · LAL 35% → 49% +14LAL 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q47:25Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)LAL 94 – 96 NY · NY 50% → 66% +15NY 50% → 66%+15 pts
- Q46:00Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 100 – 96 NY · LAL 51% → 68% +17LAL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q43:11Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 103 – 96 NY · LAL 76% → 91% +14LAL 76% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 75%
- Fair odds
- NY -173
- LAL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.0 – 117.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +35 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +188 Elo | NY 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +6.04th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.35th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.9 | Pace | 99.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–17 | Road vs home | 18–55th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.