Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints33
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game123–129
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime123–129
- OT2.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound123–129
- OT4.1Nikola Vucevic blocks Anthony Edwards 's 3-foot two point shot123–129
- OT14.0Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Kyle Anderson123–129
- OT14.0Timberwolves Full timeout123–129
- OT14.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2123–129
- OT14.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2123–128
- OT14.0Mike Conley personal take foul123–127
- OT15.1Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Andre Drummond123–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Coby White makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 109 – 107 CHI · CHI 17% → 34% +17CHI 17% → 34%+17 pts
- Q42:28Coby White makes driving layupMIN 110 – 111 CHI · CHI 39% → 58% +18CHI 39% → 58%+18 pts
- Q41:33Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot layup (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 112 – 114 CHI · MIN 13% → 29% +16MIN 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q450.1Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 115 – 115 CHI · MIN 12% → 51% +39MIN 12% → 51%+39 pts
- OT2:57DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupMIN 119 – 121 CHI · CHI 48% → 65% +16CHI 48% → 65%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 65%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.5 – 106.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +27 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +106 Elo | MIN 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 111.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.2 | Margin | −1.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 14–1218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.