Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints15
- Jalen GreenAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–111
- Q48.1Shake Milton defensive rebound90–111
- Q411.1Nate Hinton misses 25-foot three point jumper90–111
- Q418.0Reggie Bullock Jr. defensive rebound90–111
- Q421.1Shake Milton misses 12-foot pullup jump shot90–111
- Q430.1Nate Hinton makes free throw 2 of 290–111
- Q430.1Nate Hinton makes free throw 1 of 289–111
- Q430.1Luka Garza shooting foul88–111
- Q438.1Wendell Moore Jr. makes driving layup88–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 3 – 0 MIN · HOU 33% → 39% +6HOU 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q111:01Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Green assists)HOU 6 – 0 MIN · HOU 39% → 45% +6HOU 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q110:13Mike Conley makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 6 – 6 MIN · MIN 61% → 67% +6MIN 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q19:58Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 9 – 6 MIN · HOU 34% → 40% +6HOU 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q22:57Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 40 – 43 MIN · HOU 23% → 30% +7HOU 23% → 30%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Fair odds
- MIN -201
- HOU +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.2 – 112.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +39 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +146 Elo | MIN 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.9 | Points scored | 113.022nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +5.94th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 107.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 18–55th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.