Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints28
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Rockets- Cam WhitmorePoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–135
- Q45.0shot clock turnover106–135
- Q429.1Boban Marjanovic defensive rebound106–135
- Q430.0Garrett Temple misses 24-foot three point jumper106–135
- Q448.0Gradey Dick defensive rebound106–135
- Q449.0Nate Hinton misses 27-foot step back jumpshot106–135
- Q458.1Jordan Nwora makes 7-foot two point shot106–135
- Q41:15Boban Marjanovic makes 3-foot two point shot104–135
- Q41:19Boban Marjanovic offensive rebound104–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:33Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 7 – 4 HOU · TOR 39% → 46% +6TOR 39% → 46%+6 pts
- Q18:15Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)TOR 7 – 7 HOU · HOU 54% → 61% +6HOU 54% → 61%+6 pts
- Q17:43Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)TOR 7 – 10 HOU · HOU 61% → 67% +6HOU 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q15:59Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Alperen Sengun assists)TOR 10 – 17 HOU · HOU 69% → 74% +6HOU 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q14:36Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 13 – 19 HOU · TOR 22% → 27% +5TOR 22% → 27%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -157
- TOR +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.2 – 117.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −1 | TOR: Usual rotation · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +81 Elo | HOU 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.421st of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.013th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 110.67th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 17–913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.