New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints25
- Brandon IngramAssists4
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints31
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–99
- Q434.1Cam Whitmore makes driving layup110–99
- Q441.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas110–97
- Q441.1Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Brandon Ingram110–97
- Q441.1Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum110–97
- Q441.1Jonas Valanciunas loose ball foul110–97
- Q441.1Rockets defensive team rebound110–97
- Q442.1Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point jumper110–97
- Q455.1Trey Murphy III offensive rebound110–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:01Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)NO 57 – 52 HOU · HOU 29% → 36% +8HOU 29% → 36%+8 pts
- Q35:28Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)NO 73 – 66 HOU · HOU 20% → 28% +8HOU 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q32:46Jalen Green makes 25-foot step back jumpshotNO 76 – 71 HOU · HOU 23% → 32% +9HOU 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:25Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 79 – 71 HOU · NO 68% → 77% +9NO 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q410:34Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 89 – 79 HOU · NO 78% → 86% +9NO 78% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- HOU 48%
- Fair odds
- HOU -103
- NO +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 115.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +3 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +16 Elo | NO 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 113.721st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 17–811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.