Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints22
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–106
- Q42.0Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)108–106
- Q44.0Kyle Anderson enters the game for Jaden McDaniels108–103
- Q44.0Timberwolves Full timeout108–103
- Q44.0Jonathan Isaac makes free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q44.0Magic offensive team rebound107–103
- Q44.0Jonathan Isaac misses free throw 1 of 2107–103
- Q44.0Mike Conley personal take foul107–103
- Q44.0Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound107–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:26Paolo Banchero makes layup (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 98 – 93 MIN · ORL 62% → 73% +11ORL 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q45:03Anthony Edwards makes driving layupORL 98 – 95 MIN · MIN 25% → 37% +11MIN 25% → 37%+11 pts
- Q44:09Franz Wagner makes driving layupORL 100 – 95 MIN · ORL 66% → 77% +12ORL 66% → 77%+12 pts
- Q42:21Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)ORL 102 – 101 MIN · MIN 20% → 45% +25MIN 20% → 45%+25 pts
- Q41:16Jonathan Isaac makes tip shotORL 105 – 101 MIN · ORL 72% → 89% +17ORL 72% → 89%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 70%
- Fair odds
- MIN -204
- ORL +204 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.3 – 108.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +44 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +149 Elo | MIN 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 113.122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 107.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 18–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.