Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints25
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–98
- Q41.0shot clock turnover108–98
- Q423.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound108–98
- Q426.0Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–98
- Q433.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2108–98
- Q433.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2107–98
- Q433.1Victor Wembanyama personal take foul106–98
- Q434.0Paolo Banchero offensive rebound106–98
- Q436.1Markelle Fultz misses free throw 2 of 2106–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q240.1Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 55 – 49 SA · ORL 62% → 70% +8ORL 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q39:16Jalen Suggs makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 64 – 57 SA · ORL 65% → 73% +8ORL 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:40Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 67 – 59 SA · ORL 68% → 76% +8ORL 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q44:11Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point shot (Tre Jones assists)ORL 99 – 94 SA · SA 7% → 18% +11SA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- Q43:27Jeremy Sochan makes 5-foot two point shotORL 99 – 96 SA · SA 16% → 27% +11SA 16% → 27%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 61%
- Fair odds
- ORL -120
- SA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.0 – 112.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +31 | ORL: Usual rotation · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +79 Elo | ORL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 121.426th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −8.527th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 108.527th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 5–1827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.