Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Nikola JovicPoints24
- Bam AdebayoAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints23
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–97
- Q421.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound123–97
- Q424.1AJ Green misses 30-foot three point jumper123–97
- Q428.2Orlando Robinson makes 2-foot dunk (Cole Swider assists)123–97
- Q447.0AJ Green out of bounds bad pass turnover121–97
- Q450.1Cole Swider lost ball turnover (TyTy Washington Jr. steals)121–97
- Q41:14MarJon Beauchamp makes dunk (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)121–97
- Q41:16Alondes Williams lost ball turnover (AJ Green steals)121–95
- Q41:23Orlando Robinson defensive rebound121–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:48Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)MIA 57 – 44 MIL · MIA 71% → 77% +7MIA 71% → 77%+7 pts
- Q23:01Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 62 – 49 MIL · MIA 72% → 78% +7MIA 72% → 78%+7 pts
- Q22:28Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotMIA 62 – 52 MIL · MIL 21% → 28% +7MIL 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q21:43Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 65 – 52 MIL · MIA 72% → 79% +7MIA 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q36:29Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 82 – 70 MIL · MIA 74% → 82% +7MIA 74% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 60%
- Fair odds
- MIL -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.7 – 114.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | 0 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +71 Elo | MIL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 122.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 118.923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 118.15th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 103.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 23–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.