Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–106
- Q44.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Al Horford110–106
- Q44.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.110–106
- Q44.1Celtics Full timeout110–106
- Q49.1Tyler Herro makes driving layup110–106
- Q414.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Kevin Love110–104
- Q414.1Heat Full timeout110–104
- Q414.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2110–104
- Q414.1Al Horford enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis109–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:13Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 99 – 92 MIA · BOS 77% → 87% +10BOS 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q43:13Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 104 – 98 MIA · BOS 77% → 91% +14BOS 77% → 91%+14 pts
- Q42:54Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)BOS 104 – 101 MIA · MIA 8% → 22% +14MIA 8% → 22%+14 pts
- Q42:34Jaylen Brown makes 1-foot layup (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 106 – 101 MIA · BOS 79% → 89% +11BOS 79% → 89%+11 pts
- Q41:49Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 106 – 104 MIA · MIA 8% → 26% +19MIA 8% → 26%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 76%
- Fair odds
- BOS -222
- MIA +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.8 – 107.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | −34 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +198 Elo | BOS 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 110.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.5 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 112.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.2 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 15–1218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.