Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–133
- Q47.2Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 2129–133
- Q47.2Luke Kornet enters the game for Derrick White128–133
- Q47.2Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Jrue Holiday128–133
- Q47.2Corey Kispert makes free throw 1 of 2128–133
- Q47.2Derrick White personal take foul127–133
- Q48.1Al Horford enters the game for Payton Pritchard127–133
- Q48.1Wizards Full timeout127–133
- Q48.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2127–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q233.0Jordan Poole makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 68 – 64 BOS · WSH 25% → 32% +7WSH 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q23.1Deni Avdija makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 71 – 64 BOS · WSH 33% → 41% +8WSH 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q35:16Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)WSH 78 – 79 BOS · BOS 68% → 76% +9BOS 68% → 76%+9 pts
- Q33:57Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 83 – 84 BOS · WSH 17% → 24% +8WSH 17% → 24%+8 pts
- Q32:53Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)WSH 83 – 89 BOS · BOS 81% → 87% +7BOS 81% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14
- BOS 91%
- Fair odds
- BOS -583
- WSH +583 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 123.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1637 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +59 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +399 Elo | BOS 90.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 110.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +9.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 119.11st of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.6 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 24–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.