Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints40
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints28
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q413.1Tyus Jones makes driving layup114–106
- Q418.2Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2114–104
- Q418.2Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2113–104
- Q418.2Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Jordan Poole112–104
- Q418.2Jordan Poole personal take foul112–104
- Q420.1Corey Kispert makes two point shot112–104
- Q430.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2112–102
- Q430.0Isaac Okoro enters the game for Evan Mobley111–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:49Donovan Mitchell makes 30-foot three pointer (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 73 – 74 WSH · CLE 54% → 65% +11CLE 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q31:00Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)CLE 75 – 77 WSH · WSH 30% → 41% +11WSH 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q326.2Darius Garland makes 28-foot three pointer (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 78 – 77 WSH · CLE 59% → 70% +11CLE 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q411:07Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 85 – 82 WSH · CLE 66% → 77% +11CLE 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q49:28Delon Wright makes 27-foot three point jumperCLE 88 – 90 WSH · WSH 31% → 44% +13WSH 31% → 44%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12
- CLE 88%
- Fair odds
- CLE -401
- WSH +401 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.2 – 108.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +95 | −28 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +340 Elo | CLE 87.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 114.718th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 124.030th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 109.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 118.627th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 104.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 3–2130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.