Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints22
- Domantas SabonisAssists15
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–136
- Q44.0Dean Wade defensive rebound110–136
- Q48.0Kessler Edwards misses 37-foot three point jumper110–136
- Q431.0shot clock turnover110–136
- Q431.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound110–136
- Q432.0Georges Niang misses 24-foot three point jumper110–136
- Q455.2Chris Duarte makes free throw 2 of 2110–136
- Q455.2Chris Duarte makes free throw 1 of 2109–136
- Q455.2Georges Niang shooting foul108–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:53Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 14 – 15 CLE · CLE 62% → 68% +6CLE 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q14:22Keegan Murray makes 30-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 23 – 21 CLE · SAC 32% → 39% +6SAC 32% → 39%+6 pts
- Q14:11Isaac Okoro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)SAC 23 – 24 CLE · CLE 61% → 68% +6CLE 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q13:20Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 28 – 26 CLE · SAC 32% → 39% +6SAC 32% → 39%+6 pts
- Q13:05Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot step back jumpshotSAC 28 – 29 CLE · CLE 61% → 68% +6CLE 61% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Fair odds
- CLE -203
- SAC +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 111.4 – 116.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +82 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | SAC crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +191 Elo | CLE 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 114.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +4.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 109.12nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 16–812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.