Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds16
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–101
- Q417.1Julian Champagnie makes driving layup (Doug McDermott assists)115–101
- Q430.1Craig Porter enters the game for Georges Niang115–99
- Q430.1shot clock turnover115–99
- Q454.1Zach Collins ejected117–99
- Q454.1Donovan Mitchell ejected117–99
- Q454.1Georges Niang makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2117–99
- Q454.1Georges Niang makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2116–99
- Q454.1Malaki Branham makes technical free throw115–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)CLE 4 – 3 SA · SA 16% → 20% +4SA 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q18:18Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot step back jumpshotCLE 10 – 9 SA · SA 17% → 21% +4SA 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q15:15Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 17 – 11 SA · CLE 82% → 86% +4CLE 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q28:29Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 40 – 34 SA · CLE 80% → 85% +5CLE 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q27:27Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CLE 43 – 34 SA · CLE 85% → 89% +4CLE 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11.5
- CLE 86%
- Fair odds
- CLE -364
- SA +364 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.2 – 108.4 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +81 | +17 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +317 Elo | CLE 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 112.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 120.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 108.427th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 116.424th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 5–2028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.